Week 18 - 2026 · Brown-Forman walks, Sazerac waits, Scotch wins

Fri, 01 May 2026 13:02:30 +0000

1. Big consolidation talks died, mid-tier consolidation accelerated. Pernod walked Tuesday, Brown-Forman overhauled distribution Thursday, RNDC sold off in 4 separate deals, Becle exited RNDC, Manhattan Beer became NY's largest distributor.

2. Regulatory winds reversed for Scotch. Trump lifted all UK whisky tariffs Friday during King Charles' state visit. SWA had estimated £600M in lost sales over the prior 18 months.

3. De-premiumisation confirmed, but the bottom may be in. Becle -67%, MGP -40%, Boston Beer to $145M loss, Remy +0.2%. Bright spot: NBWA Beer Purchasers' Index flipped to 59 — first expansion reading in 21 months.

Week 17

Sat, 25 Apr 2026 14:03:30 +0000

Lead story: Brown-Forman favors a Pernod Ricard merger-of-equals over Sazerac's $15B all-cash bid. The Brown family's preference is structural, not financial. A combined Pernod-BF would carry ~$15B revenue and ~$30B market cap, putting it in Diageo's weight class and triggering inevitable SKU divestitures that mid-sized brands can scoop up.

M&A and earnings highlights: Pernod Q3 came in at €1.945B (-15% YoY), with US -12%, China -7%, and India the only growth engine at +11%. FY26 guidance cut again to -3% to -4%. Stone Brewing changed hands for the second time in four years, this time Sapporo to Duvel Moortgat plus Firestone Walker, closing by end of Q2.

Market data (April 24 close): BF.B $28.38 (mkt cap $13.33B, putting Sazerac's $15B offer at a thin 13% premium for a control transaction), STZ $158.13, DEO $79.50 with a 4.25% yield. Diageo's $44B cap is the comp shareholders will run against any Pernod-BF combination.

Aggregated sources, voices generated with ai. Prepared by Jason Littrell

The Spirits Wire

Week 18 - 2026 · Brown-Forman walks, Sazerac waits, Scotch wins

Week 17